Archive for October, 2008

23
Oct

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY and FINANCIAL MODELING

   Posted by: Marty Koenig    in Angel and VC

The job of the executive summary is to sell, not to describe. The executive summary is often your clip_image002initial face to a potential investor, so it is critically important that you create the right first impression. You need to convey its essence, and its energy. You have about 30 seconds to grab an investor’s interest. You do not need to explain the entire business plan in 250 words. You want to be clear and compelling.

This means your executive summary should be about two pages, maybe three. Business owners are usually too close to their products and the everyday grind of building a company. It is usually a challenge for the business owner to boil down hundreds if not thousands of pages that exist on paper and in their mind to succinct set of words. I produce an excellent, attractive and informative executive summary using what I call the Jerry Bruckheimer approach clip_image006(American film, television and commercial producer best known for CSI: Crime Scene Investigation and movie Pirates of the Caribbean). Jerry’s approach is “Every single frame counts. Literally.” You have to be able to tell a story, sometimes with humor, sometimes with emotion, very quickly. I equate a good executive summary to producing a commercial versus producing a movie, where every frame does not count because the story carries so much of it. Whereas in advertising sometimes the execution is the idea. When producing a commercial the creator takes the time to finesse the words, play on the emotions, carefully architect the flow and the look and feel. If the investor can’t clip_image004get past the first 30 seconds, their interest in your company disappears. The goal of a good executive summary is not to get them to invest, but to get them to flip back to the financial section, which also has to rock their emotions.

My Executive Summary development service starts with gathering all the information you have already prepared. I do a gap analysis to figure out the price, which typically ranges from $3,000 to $6,000 and takes about a month to create for you.

FINANCIAL MODELS

In order for an early stage or emerging company to raise money, it must provide investors with a set of financial projections.  Typically, companies will pull together a top-down P&L projection going out for three to five years.  I have learned from hard experience that this is wholly inadequate.  You will need a complete Business Plan which once the company starts executing the plan becomes an Operating Plan. The development of financial projections is an interactive exercise with the me working alongside the entrepreneur, not created in a vacuum and thrown over the wall. My business planning work includes teaching the business owner(s) how to explain the financials and you get an understanding of fundamental financial terminology you can show potential investors and lenders.

We have developed a set of financial tools for comprehensive Business Plan financials, which embodies the experience of nearly 2,000 combined years of my CFO partners’ experience building such plans for these type firms in all industries:

· Pre-funded, pre-revenue startups

· Funded, pre-revenue startups

· Hyper growth entrepreneurial companies

· Revenue generating companies that want to grow

These tools provide a platform for the rapid development of custom Business/Operating Plans which clients can then use to optimize their funding strategies.

These are the financial elements of a Business Plan/Operating Plan suitable for presentation to investors, please see below.

  • Revenue Model
  • Department Budgets
  • Expense Summary
  • Fixed Assets
  • Income Statement / P&L
  • Cash Flow Projections

There are many reasons why a simple top-down P&L will not suffice for raising capital. Firstly, before contacting investors, the company should determine how much capital it needs to raise. A P&L projection can tell you the operating losses that you will need to fund, but it misses at least three other major items that consume cash, and it does not show any relation to what other companies in your industry are doing and have done. It does not properly reflect your purchases of equipment, software and other capital assets (a minor ongoing depreciation item in your P&L, but a lump-sum up front cash outflow). It ignores your accounts receivables (booked income as far as your P&L is concerned, but in reality cash that is NOT yet in your bank account). And it misses your inventory (not yet expensed in your P&L projection, but again an up front cash outflow).  In many cases the total amount of cash required to reach cash flow break-even can be two to three times the operating losses indicated in the P&L projections.

clip_image002[6]I include analysis of Industry benchmarks, which are included to validate assumptions, ratios, profitability, and financial ratios. These industry benchmarks are used as a starting point, and then the differences between the company and the industry are explained in detail.

Moreover, a P&L alone cannot answer a wide range of questions concerning the company’s business model and possible performance.  For instance, does the company consume more cash before reaching cash flow break-even by growing quickly or slowly?  How much cash needs to be raised to reach the first milestone at which the company’s riskiness (and therefore its cost of capital) drops sharply?  How many assets can be funded with inexpensive asset-based debt finance rather than expensive VC equity?  The answers to these and many other questions determine the optimum financing strategy to avoid unnecessary dilution of the founding team’s ownership percentage in the company.   They can only be answered by a thorough analysis of the P&L, Balance Sheet and Statement of Cash Flow.

For all of these reasons, it is critical that a startup develop a complete economic model of its business, a living, breathing set of interactive relationships modeled in a spreadsheet that behaves like the actual business and can be used for scenario generation, analysis and optimization.  This document is not just a pretty picture for investors, it is a hardcore Operating Plan with all of the gritty details of who, what and when.  Properly done, the management team can analyze and discard many alternative approaches to launching or growing the business, including testing different pricing schemes, distribution strategies, sales force models, support options, payment cycles, hiring plans and marketing budgets, to name just a few.

The output of such an Operating Plan is a set of P&L, Balance Sheet, and Cash Flow projections.  But standing behind these is a complete model of the business that provides the following benefits:

    • The entire management team knows exactly what each individual needs to do in each month of the plan.
    • The management team has a yardstick against which to measure execution.
    • The management team knows exactly how much cash it needs to raise to reach cash flow break-even, and how sensitive that number is to changes in key operating assumptions.
    • The Company has hard evidence to provide investors that it has thought through every aspect of execution.
    • The Company can strongly support the credibility of its projections by showing investors that its forecast is built from the bottom up, sale by sale, hire by hire, with all key assumptions clearly articulated.
    • The Company has a cash forecasting tool that can be adjusted for actual results to provide invaluable early warning of the need to start looking for another round of equity with time to raise it before running out of cash.

A savvy management team will have all of this in place before getting in front of investors.

REVENUE MODEL

The Revenue Model starts by defining the basic unit of sale, which might be a single product sale, a long term project, a subscription, a service transaction, or a customer relationship.  Whatever the unit is, the Revenue Model defines the economics of a single unit sale, and then builds revenues by generating multiple transactions across all product and service lines.  Revenues are generated by definable inputs, such as the number of salespeople hired clip_image004[7]times the average productivity per sales person, or the number of retail outlets carrying the product times the average units sold per outlet.

This granular bottoms-up approach builds real credibility for your projections.  It transforms arguments from investors along the lines of “We don’t think your revenue ramp is achievable” into conversations such as “Yeah, hiring one salesperson a month doesn’t seem unreasonable” and “Your projected revenue per salesperson is about industry average, and we like the way you don’t show any sales for the first six months after a new sales hire”.


DEPARTMENT BUDGETS

The Operating Plan includes a spreadsheet detailing expenses for each department in the enterprise.  Since most expense items are driven by headcount, a department budget starts with a section that tracks personnel and salary costs.  The second section then extrapolates an expense line for each expense item.  Expense items are generally defined to match exactly to the Company’s General Ledger account structure, so that historical data and future updates for actual results can be easily copied in.clip_image006[7]

Special expense categories such as rent, travel, outsourced Server Farm charges or Help Desk expenses are calculated in their own sub-models within the appropriate Department spreadsheet.  All variable expenses are ratio driven and tie to primary drivers, such as unit sales, total number of customers or headcount employed, which in turn are driven by the primary revenue assumptions so that all variable expenses shift up and down naturally with changes in revenue projections.  This approach ensures that the model behaves like a real business and can be used for accurate scenario generation and sensitivity analysis.

EXPENSE SUMMARY

The Operating Plan includes a spreadsheet called Expense Summary which summarizes total corporate expenses by Expense Item and also by Department.  This summary provides investors with a complete picture of how you intend to spend their cash.

INCOME STATEMENT

clip_image010The Income Statement ties together the Revenue Model and the Expense Summary to create a P&L for the Company.  Since the expenses for certain Departments are split between Cost of Sale and SG&A categories, the Income Statement includes sophisticated checksums to ensure that no expenses are left unaccounted for.


BALANCE SHEET

Many entrepreneurs approach investors without a Balance Sheet in their projections because they figure that investors don’t really care about this aspect of their clip_image012company.  Moreover, it’s very difficult to get a projected Balance Sheet to actually balance, so why bother?   The answer is simple.  You can’t get an accurate Statement of Cash Flow without a Balance Sheet, and EVERYONE cares about cash.

The Balance Sheet contains the critical assumption for the average number of days in the customer payment cycle, which in turn drives the amount of cash tied up in Accounts Receivables.  For product companies, the Balance Sheet also calculates the amount of cash tied up in the inventory needed to support the sales volumes from the Revenue Model.  And for all companies, the Balance Sheet draws in the cash consumed by the asset purchases indicated in the Fixed Asset Schedule.

STATEMENT OF CASH FLOWclip_image014

The Statement of Cash Flow is the Queen of all financial statements. Sophisticated entrepreneurs and investors alike care most about this view. Entrepreneurs want to know how much cash they are going to have to raise to reach cash flow break-even. Investors want to know how much more money will be needed to support their initial investment, and, failing that, how much dilution they stand to absorb from follow-on investment.

The Statement of Cash Flow integrates cash consumed or generated from operating activities flowing in from the P&L with the cash consumed or generated by changes in Balance Sheet items such as Accounts Payable, Accounts Receivable, Inventory and Plant, Property & Equipment.clip_image016


KEY RATIOS and ASSUMPTIONS

Investors want to see the story behind the numbers, and they need to see the rationale and assumptions the entrepreneur used to create the numbers. There are a lot of numbers in clip_image020financial projections, some are derived, others are entered based on discussion with a competent CFO and documented thoroughclip_image018ly in the plan. Many entrepreneurs make the mistake of not including the thoughts, how they arrived at each of the numbers, and they often fail to prepare the backup material and assumptions that show the investor you have put some serious thought and work into your planning. Those that have not planned this way are seen as financially unsophisticated which leads investors to believe you probably are not the type of person in which they want to invest.

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17
Oct

Are You Pleased with Your Sales Force?

   Posted by: Marty Koenig    in Sales

My greatest skills reside in business strategy and planning, execution, business analytics, daily/weekly/monthly management reporting, and financial modeling. Yet, I’ve spent my fair share of time this year helping my clients evaluate, motivate, and coach their sales forces. It’s about the people.

During some of this work, I’ve noticed a trend across some of these businesses relative to their respective sales forces–weak to underachieving sales performance.

In every situation, I know the cause of this undesirable performance. The cause can be traced to two of the most critical requirements to be successful in sales according to Ron Willingham, author of Integrity Selling for the 21st Century:

Strong goal clarity

High achievement drive (to reach goals above)

If your sales team members are not performing to par, start with their goals. While you may provide them targets each month, are they going the next step by setting clear personal goals to make sure they reach the corporate targets? If not, you have a coaching opportunity to make sure that happens.

Regarding achievement drive, a sales team member either has it, or they do not. Such drive cannot be taught or driven (no pun intended). If the drive does not exist in the sales team member, do not let that situation linger. Make a change quickly. Go get the book so you can see what I mean.

willinghambook By the way, I cannot say enough about Integrity Selling for the 21st Century. More than a book, Ron Willingham’s sales method has been taught to some 2 million students worldwide. As a proud graduate of this system, I highly recommend it. I’m happy to field your questions if you would like to learn more.

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15
Oct

Credit Crunch for Small Business

   Posted by: Marty Koenig    in Banking

A credit crunch is here for small businesses – and it is crucial that they prepare themselves for the worst. Banks, nervous about the prospect of more borrowers defaulting on loans, have been tightening their rules when it comes to lending money to consumers and major corporations. And industry experts say lending jitters have extended to small firms as well, making it harder for them to find loans.

In recent years, credit has been relatively easy to come by as banks aggressively pursued entrepreneurs, offering larger loans at cheap rates to untested companies. Most bank executives say that for now, they have neither toughened lending standards nor raised interest rates on loans to small businesses.

But banks say some businesses that received loans in recent years are falling behind on payments – and default rates are expected to accelerate. As a result, experts say some lenders are already tightening their lending criteria and they expect more to follow suit.

So small companies may want to think about ways to insulate themselves from the credit crunch.

Here are some suggestions

•    Pick a bank that caters to your situation
•    Keep detailed and professional financial records
•    Be prepared to put up personal assets like homes as collateral, which can make a big difference for young companies seeking funding

The Best Bank for You

One of the most important decisions small businesses face as they hunt for loans is which bank to turn to. Business owners should keep in mind how different types of banks evaluate loan applications.

Big institutions that promise speedy approvals or rejections of applications, generally rely on credit-scoring models based on the business owner’s personal credit history. By contrast, community banks, credit unions and other smaller lenders often lean more heavily on their knowledge of the local economy and the would-be borrower’s business model and track record of running or launching businesses.

Lease financing companies have been aggressive in providing low document leases – usually up to about $75,000, and can be great sources for equipment and asset financing.

Credit unions are nonprofit institutions owned by their depositors. Credit unions tend to make smaller loans than banks and have been making a big push to attract more small-business customers. In addition, entrepreneurs should look for lenders with programs aimed at specific types of small businesses: women, minorities, veterans. Of course, when applying for loans, it also helps to have an existing relationship with the bank.

Detailed Documents

While some banks have been hawking loans that don’t require business owners to provide much financial documentation beyond recent tax returns, that’s starting to change.

When applying for loans, small businesses should be ready to produce cash-flow statements, balance sheets, and even financial plans. Having it on hand is likely to impress bankers and could tip the scales in favor of getting a loan approved. Companies should consider hiring part-time, high level professional financial help to improve documentation and help present a professional image to bankers.

Collateral

Entrepreneurs in search of funding also need to be prepared to put their personal assets, like a home, on the line. But experts say that with home values stalling or falling in many parts of the country, business owners shouldn’t count on that as the only collateral while banks get more skittish.

Bottom line…things will get tougher for small business financing, and banks will tend to favor companies that have their financial houses in order, that produce reliable and accurate financial statements, and that can demonstrate a deep understanding of their business model.

Make it a great week!

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14
Oct

Why We Shouldn’t Fear the Failure of Some Firms

   Posted by: Marty Koenig    in Uncategorized

The Smart Money article is an excellent view of how our fears about “a big crash” are sometimes unjustified.

Few have questioned the basic premise — the notion that many of our financial institutions are truly too big to fail. The underlying theory is not, of course, that the world cannot live without Bear Stearns, but rather that if Bear failed, it could pull under other financial players to whom, through a complex array of trades and credit obligations, it is linked.

For more SmartMoney Magazine features, turn to the October issue.

Exponents of this view often employ the metaphor of a house of cards. Remove one card and the rest collapse. I have never — not when I wrote a book about LTCM, and not now — thought the metaphor was quite right.

Is the economy really so fragile, and is finance really a house of cards? A single firm certainly may implode. When Enron’s books were exposed as a sham, no one would lend to it, and the company did collapse.

But the economy is composed of thousands of firms. They do not all fail at once. David Ranson, an economist at H.C. Wainwright Economics, thinks we are unduly alarmist. A better metaphor, he suggests, is a beehive.

Picture thousands of bees furiously building — and when necessary, rebuilding — the hive. When one bee falls, another takes its place. The bees work in association with each other, but not in a pyramid. If a section of the hive crumbles, the rest of it continues to function. Meanwhile, nature compels the remaining bees to repair the damage. With bees, the motivation seems to be collective. With capitalist human beings, the motivation is individual — but the result is not dissimilar.

Of course, when a house of cards collapses, the entire structure is leveled; the restoration must start from scratch. But that isn’t what happens in the U.S. economy. No sooner does an enterprise fail than others swoop in to snare either the fallen firm’s assets or market share or both. This is how humans repair the hive.

See the entire article here: http://www.smartmoney.com/smartmoney-magazine/index.cfm?story=october2008-financial-firm&split=0

7
Oct

The Best Way to Grow Your Business

   Posted by: Marty Koenig    in General

Although every business wants to grow, some types of growth are certainly better than others. Consider the following 2 options:

OPTION 1: Grow Sales by 20%, and net income increases 50%.

OPTION 2: Grow Sales by 50% (a lot more work and risk than Option 1), and net income only increases 20%.

The best way to grow is when net income growth out-paces sales revenue growth. For every additional unit of sales, we want to generate more profit, not less. How can we accomplish this?

Jim Collins, the author of Good to Great, found that the more an organization sticks to its core competency, the more opportunities the company had for the good kind of growth – the growth where net income increases faster than sales!

What is your core competency? It’s what you do well and, when you do it, you’ve proven that it can make money. If you are a trade contractor, then it is your trade. If you are an attorney, then it is the law. If you are a widget manufacturer, then – I think you get the point.

I have experienced many occasions when, in its desire to grow, a company strays from its core competency and involves itself in a business and industry it doesn’t know very well. Sadly, these new ventures begin to drain time and resources (most importantly, CASH!) from the main business. In essence, the core competency of the firm subsidizes a less successful venture.

Sticking to your competency requires a great deal of discipline, but it is the best way to grow your company. By sticking to your core, you will find the most profitability and enduring growth opportunities! Call me and I’ll help you grow your business like I have for dozens of others.

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1
Oct

What Keeps you Awake at Night?

   Posted by: Marty Koenig    in General

Starting out, the new business was stressful, but fun. There was not enough money or time, but things seemed to get done. Most of the time was spent taking care of the customers. There was a lot of satisfaction knowing that we could not only find customers but we could also do a better job than our competition. Looking back, words such as “excitement,” “fun,” and “killing the competitors,” were words we used to use with the few employees we had.
Our company grew
Sales increased more than we ever imagined. Our sales tripled, then doubled, and then doubled again. We actually had cash in the bank! Our customers were pleased with us. We would stay at the office late at night and dream of how we would continue to kill the competition. The ideas were creative and exciting. We saw a clear vision of the future and felt that we had unlimited energy to continue to grow the company. As the owner, I dreamed about finally buying that car that I had wanted for such a long time. That long vacation with the family seemed within reach.

Our company grew some more, and things got worse
Sales grew even more, but things seemed to change. I did not understand how we could have so little cash when our sales were almost ten times higher than the second year after we started our business. My instincts were to continue doing the things that got me to where I was at this level of sales. I found it harder, however, to interview all the new prospective employees, to manage cash, to sign all the checks, and to fire unproductive people.
I dreaded the endless meetings with lenders, accountants, attorneys, pension administrators, insurance agents, vendors, complaining employees, complaining customers, government auditors, etc. I used to spend most of my time creating ideas and spending time with my key customers. Somehow, these endless meetings drained my energy to remain creative. I feared meeting with customers because our quality somehow was not the same as when our sales were smaller.
We had no idea
We had no idea how difficult it was to deal with the Family Medical Leave Act, OSHA, workers compensation audits, sales tax audits, IRS audits, bank examiner audits, etc. The endless questions, the time, and the money we had to spend were frustrating beyond my ability to describe.
The employees who were so willing and eager to work long hours for a reasonable salary began to get a little greedy. They assumed our company was floating in cash because of the high sales volume. They always wanted more. More wages. More vacations. More profit-sharing money. More paid holidays. More health care. More dental benefits. More, more, more!
Even more frustrating, some of my people began to leave to work for the competition. One “loyal” employee left my company because he could get pa id $500.00 a year more from someone else! I thought we should have a little more loyalty from some of the employees who left. We then not only had to replace these people but had to spend time trying to train them, all of which took more time and money than we ever expected.
Besides, where did all the cash go? I’m not getting paid that much more than I was a few years ago. In fact, I recently had to put money into the company to meet a payroll. My bookkeeper and other employees have never given me an adequate explanation where all the cash has gone. Is it possible that someone is stealing from the company? What do I have to do to help the bank understand that they should lend me more money?
Who is spending time with our customers?
Our sales started to decrease. Customer complaints were at an all-time high. It suddenly dawned on me that I had not spent any quality time with my customers in months. I had been trying to ignore some of them because I did not have the energy to listen to their complaints. Deep down inside my gut, I knew that our company did not have the resources to solve the complaints even if I was able to spend time listening.
I started to lose sleep at night when I realized that my competitors were spending more time with my customers than we were. I then began to feel significant stress when I realized that there was no time, money or energy to focus on new markets, new customers, and new ideas to help grow the company.

Does any of this seem familiar?

Let’s work together to make a plan where you can again enjoy your business and sleep well at night.

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